It is little surprise, then, that Southeast Asian states are drawing closer to the United Statesboth seeking aid in developing their own defense capabilities and hoping that stronger ties act as a deterrent to Chinese assertiveness. India has proactively engaged in the South China Sea (SCS), notably via boosting its naval presence and forging ties with Vietnam despite China's aggression. China, too, considers control of these waters to be of high strategic importance. At the economic front, it is estimated that an annual global trade of $5.3 trillion passes through the SCS. The United States sent a carrier battle group there as well. Report Current developments in the South China Sea must be understood against the backdrop of recent history. Hanoi will move cautiously and such access may be limited to the purposes of logistical support for the time being. That claim remained shrouded in a calculated fog of ambiguity until 2010 when Secretary of State Clinton addressed the status of the South China Sea and its sea-lanes at a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi. Center for Strategic and International Studies The United States and its Pacific allies should consider whether it is feasible and sensible to coordinate the activities of USAID, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), and Australias Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. China, however, must now balance its continental concerns, which remain complex, against its new dependence on the maritime domain. Without the southern American presence, Chinese forces could more easily divide American forces east and west in the event of a crisis, more easily defend territorial claims or intimidate Malaysia and Indonesia, and more easily threaten maritime and air traffic crisscrossing the South China Sea. If full democratization is her goal, there is no foreign partner more important than Washington for achieving it. Back in 2006, Japan became only the second country (after Russia) to establish a strategic partnership with Vietnam. China, Russia and the Munich Security Conference. There are certainly other situations involving other challenges, but this is the most plausible and dangerous. Under President Xi Jinping, Beijing has undertaken more assertive policies that have greatly improved Beijings position in the South China Sea. When Beijing froze banana imports from the Philippines in the midst of the Scarborough Shoal standoff in 2012, it sent a clear message to its Southeast Asian neighbors: economic ties would not be immune from diplomatic contretemps. Because of its location, this sea is extremely strategic because it connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans (Strait of Malacca). The South China Sea is a core interest of both Vietnam and China. The refusal, likely prompted by Beijing, might seem to be just another way for China to put pressure on Taiwan, which it has long regarded as a renegade province. It has increased its military budget by over 8.5% in recent years and this is likely to continue for the near future. Although ultimately unsuccessful in Vietnam, America emerged in a surprisingly advantageous strategic position in Southeast Asia with alliances intact with Thailand and the Philippines and friendly ties with Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Preserving the U.S. military edge is key to maintaining the U.S. position in Asia. In such a complex environment, it is important to have well-established, recognizable rules of international law. In addition, this thesis intends to propose a solution to the dispute by pulling from a variety of sources. Giving ground on vital interests in Asia will not encourage greater cooperation on global issues. The region also is the subject of more than a dozen overlapping and interconnected disputes over who is in charge of the various islands, rocks, shoals and reefs scattered throughout the South China Sea waters. Dispersed American forces would act as countermeasure and would complicate defense planning for the Chinese military and political calculations for Beijing, while ensuring U.S. forces are positioned to support each other in the event of a crisis. In the past two weeks, Filipino . Douglas R. Bush, Deterring a Cross-Strait Conflict: Beijing's Assessment of Evolving U.S. Strategy, Rethinking Humanitarian Aid: A Conversation with Michelle Nunn, President and CEO of CARE USA, The South China Sea Some Fundamental Strategic Principles, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Diversity and Leadership in International Affairs Project, Energy Security and Climate Change Program. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it. U.S. allies and partners in the region are drawing lessons from Chinese coercive behavior and the limited U.S. response to it, and some are beginning to doubt U.S. resolve and adjust their foreign policies in response. Australia will be isolated with an uncertain future. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the South China Sea dispute and to analyze why the dispute has yet to escalate, as well as the strategic importance of the South China Sea dispute to international trade. It would also open the option of persistently jamming Chinese radar installations in the Spratlys. April 26, 2016 There is widespread interest in the rising tensions over the waters east of China. A U.S. Navy crewman aboard a P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft views a computer screen purportedly showing Chinese construction on the reclaimed land of Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in this still image from video provided by the United States Navy May 21, 2015. South China Sea or even some part of its strategically significant zones will provide the sovereign nation state significant seat in global trade agreements. Enduring U.S. interestsfreedom of navigation and overflight, support for the rules-based international order, and the peaceful resolution of disputesare at risk in the region. The lifting of the arms embargo also opens the door to other forms of U.S.-Vietnam security cooperation. Learn more in our Cookie Policy. However, there were a number of reasons to conclude that the line was no cartographic anomaly; it was an official indication of Beijings contention that the sovereign territory of China included the South China Sea. These straws-in-the-wind gained strategic context because the PRC had long published official maps showing a boundary encompassing almost the entire South China Sea the nine-dash line.. Successful capacity building efforts will allow Southeast Asian states to better help themselves, bolstering deterrence against low-level Chinese coercion and allowing the U.S. military to focus more on deterring high-level contingencies. In 2010, the US declared its freedom of navigation in the SCS to be a national interest in response to Chinas increasingly assertive posture. The United States has been largely successful at preserving its own freedom of action and deterring outright Chinese aggression in the South China Sea through routine presence operations. We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. The third will assess the policies/strategies currently employed by the United States in this arena as well as other plausible options. Should they be neutral, China may lord over the southern reaches of the South China Sea from military bases on its newly created and expanded islands in the Spratlys. The strategic landscape of the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia in the early 1990s was remarkably benign with optimism in full flower. Any temptation to alter U.S. policies in the South China Sea to preserve cooperation with China in other areas is unnecessary and potentially counterproductive. The reaction of the Chinese Foreign Minister was incendiary and revealing. A South China Sea Strategy By Dan Blumenthal, Michael Auslin, and Michael Mazza I. Beware China: America Fights Back In recent years, China's inventive engineering feats have allowed it to. It is one in which China dominates the South China Sea from the north; the United States and its partners dominate the eastern and western edges of the sea; and the bulk of continental Southeast Asian states (Thailand, Cambodia and Laos) are either neutral or aligned more closely with China. China, of course, has important strengths in Burma. 1. Less sexy but no less important is a forthcoming arrangement by which Vietnam will allow the United States military to preposition supplies and equipment in Da Nang on the central coast. With the incoming administration likely to grapple early with South China Sea issues, the CSIS Southeast Asia Program, directed by Dr. Amy Searight, worked in collaboration with other Asia colleagues at CSISDr. Indeed, when push came to shove, China would force its bilateral partners to choose between economic prosperity on the one hand and security and even sovereignty on the other. U.S. goals to uphold regional alliances and partnerships, defend international rules and norms, and maintain a productive relationship with China remain valid. China sought access to natural resources, to political influence and to a strategic maritime position in the Bay of Bengal. The United States can, if necessary, accept a continental Southeast Asia that leans China without major concern for Americas primary interests. The credibility of U.S. security support for allies and partners will be shredded. 1994 The Convention on the Law of the Sea goes into effect. by Geoffrey Hartman A critical and early Chinese test of U.S. resolve is likely to come in the South China Sea, where Washington has struggled to respond effectively to assertive Chinese behavior. The United States now has the opportunity to secure for another generation the peace that has held in Asia for nearly four decades now. The U.S. militarys enhanced ability to loiter in and over the South China Sea, moreover, will facilitate more effective efforts to track Chinese submarines sailing from the PLANs underground naval base on Hainan island. The Strategic Importance of the South China Sea (With reference to the geopolitical, economic, and military aspects) South China Sea is known as one of the most significant and dangerous cluster of Islands in the contemporary world. In 2012, then Chinese president Hu Jintao voiced his desire to make China a powerful maritime nation. What evidence is there of increased projection of Maritime Power? Vietnam and the Philippines have also attempted to form a strategic alliance with Japan in their struggle with China in the SCS. China has tried to effectively annex the whole South China Sea region as its territorial waters, according to Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). The South China Sea has become important to the US because of China's challenge to the liberal rules-based order that America has promoted since the Pacific war. Other claimant states welcome U.S. involvement precisely because Washington does not favor one claimants territorial ambitions over those of the others. In a first, a Modi-Obamajoint statementlast year explicitly raised concerns over the South China Sea and called on all parties to avoid the threat or use of force and pursue resolution of territorial and maritime disputes through all peaceful means.. To this end, the new administration should perform an early, top-down, and thorough strategic review to enable greater consistency and effectiveness in U.S. South China Sea policy. NEW DELHI (The Straits Times/Asia News Network): Singapore's Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan urged China and the US to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the South . European access to Asia will be through Beijing. The United States also faces a challenge in enforcing international law in the South China Sea. U.S. responses to Chinas South China Sea activities have been insufficient to alter Chinas behavior and have fed the narrative that China is pushing the United States out of the region. This principled stand allows the United States to defend its interests without embroiling itself in the murky sovereignty claims at the heart of the South China Sea dispute. From the report. Vietnam's coastline bordering the South China Sea is over 3,000 kilometers long. This concept of regional order links tightly to a broader set of interests, values, and institutions embodied in the post-World War II international system a system that reflects U.S. values, U.S. leadership and is consonant with U.S. interests. Marcos Jr. had previously said his country would pursue oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea even without a deal with China, which claims almost all of the 1.3 million square mile South . Chinas claims over the legal status and maritime rights of the 9 dash line remain ambiguous and outside of UN recognised EEZ claims. It is the geostrategic importance that is usually the main reason for the parties to strengthen their claim over the Spratlys and the Paracels. It is highly likely that China will continue to upset regional stability in the SCS to expand its own sphere of influence. Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs. In 2016, they carried fully one-third of global shipping with an estimated value of $3.4 trillion. The United States, moreover, should work with its other Pacific alliesAustralia, South Korea and especially Japanto consider ways that they can lead efforts to expand infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia, perhaps by reforming and enlarging the Asian Development Bank or by launching a joint infrastructure investment fund. Conservation values protection of marine habitat against wanton, unnecessary despoliation are also essential. The South China Sea is considered a "near sea" and its geographic proximity to the mainland is central to the China's strategic imagination and threat perception. Media Relations Manager, External Relations. The Obama administration has made modest gains in this regard, but it will be up for to the next president to seize that opportunity and ensure that Southeast Asias future is prosperous, peaceful and free. This access will allow for more frequent, more sustained flights over the South China Sea, including over the disputed Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. Accordingly, Malaysia's note verbale serves as the strongest stance of Malaysia on the SCS in recent times and aligns itself with the top priority of its DWP. Southeast Asia will inevitably be rendered subordinate and compliant to Chinas will. The United States needs to consider a wider variety of non-military responses to Chinas efforts to control the South China Sea, and more effectively build a local coalition to support these responses. The sea is rich in resources and holds significant strategic and political importance. Since 2014, China has stepped up the construction of artificial islands over the disputed Spratlys and Paracels in the SCS, causing an escalation of tensions, upsetting stability. Hanoi and Canberra have launched a number of security dialogues and are expanding personnel exchanges, ship visits and officer training. The largest and most powerful of these . Since the mid-1990s, China has pursued a strategy . In short, adopting a more robust deterrence approach need not prevent cooperation that is in the interests of both countries. No other state in the region can match this increase in projection and rival China due to the economic differences. See Media Page for more interview, contact, and citation details. The United States emerged from World War II as a resident great power in East Asia. Beijing has also been careful to avoid estranging Aung San Suu Kyi and adopted a largely pragmatic approach to the countrys transition away from authoritarian rule. The new administration should issue clear and consistent strategic messages, since inconsistent articulation of the objectives of the rebalance strategy has caused confusion in China and amongst U.S. allies and partners. U.S. leaders should not be afraid of tension in the U.S.-China relationship. A new arrangement for U.S. naval access to Cam Ranh Bay may well be in the offing. Leung, The Consequences of Conquest: Why Indo-Pacific Power Hinges on Taiwan, United States vs China: from Partnership to Antagonism - Interview with Alfredo Toro Hardy, How the Ukraine War changes Global Geopolitics, What The Economist omits to address in President Xi's vision of a global security order, Armenia: Trapped in Between Interview with Gayane Novikova, How Chinas COVID Policy Reversal Impacts Globally: an interview with Neeraj Singh Manha, Marcos-Xi Durian Diplomacy Climbs to Higher Gear, Is the EU Really Willing to Enlarge in the Western Balkans? Those bases may be vulnerable, but before and at the outbreak of hostilities, they will allow China to project power deep into maritime Southeast Asia, to threaten commercial and military passage through the sea, and to impose and enforce an air defense identification zone. In particular Chinas maritime law enforcement in the disputed islands and waters has disrupted regional stability; causing tensions between Vietnam after a clash between Chinese patrol boats and Vietnamese oil exploration vessels. Australia and Vietnam established a Comprehensive Partnership in 2009 and agreed to expand it in 2015. The primary challenge to American regional predominance came from Maoist China first through the Korean War and then via communist insurgencies throughout Southeast Asia culminating in the Vietnam War (1963-75). China's actions in the SCSincluding extensive . With a new Southeast Asian strategic alignment taking shape as described, geography makes Indonesia and Malaysiaespecially due to its Sabah and Sarawak states on Borneothe regions key swing states. The Tribunal rejects Chinas maritime claims that go beyond the entitlements set out in the Law of the Sea Convention. The Chinese recently built an island in the South China Sea, apparently as a potential airbase. Post-Mao China, with the emergence of Deng Xiaoping as paramount leader, became a major constructive presence dedicated to economic development fueled by opening the Middle Kingdom to the region and the world. To counter Chinas efforts to control the South China Sea, the United States needs a sustainable strategy to bolster its own capabilities, work more effectively with capable allies and partners, and strengthen the regional order. The South China Sea is basically China's export waterway to Africa and to Europe (among other markets), but in order for China's enemy (aspiring conqueror), America, to harm and weaken China maximally, and to use the United Nations assisting in that aggression, America and its allies have cast this vital trade-waterway as being instead basically just an area to be exploited for oil and gas . Walter Lohman hasdescribedCobra Gold as an achievement that has proved useful for military missions, such as joint patrols of vital sea lanes, and noncombat missions, such as disaster relief following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2008 Cyclone Nargis in Burma.. She also observed that the sea-lanes through the South China Sea constituted a global commons not subject to sovereign claims by any nation. The United States should intensify capacity building efforts with allies and partners to improve their ability to resist Chinese coercion. Firstly, the South China Sea is a prominent shipping passage with $5.3 trillion worth of . Australia, for its part, has vocally supported U.S. freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea and may have quietly conducted its own in recent months. How that competition will evolve remains to be seen, but the very fact of the contest should be understood as a reversal of fortune for China. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling efforts during operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and April 2015 Nepal earthquake., The U.S.-Thai alliance has also served as a platform for important training exercises. It is clear that increased maritime power projection in the SCS, from the Chinese in particular, has upset regional stability, and this is likely to continue. Miguel . The United States has been less successful in supporting local partners as they resist Chinese coercion. In addition to fishing grounds, the South China Sea contains an abundance of energy resources, . Now, the two militaries will increasingly exercise and train across a broad spectrum of military operations, from the low end to the high. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. American littoral combat ships are rotating through Singapore, at the South China Seas western extremis, and the city-state has also quietly built the only Asian port outside of Yokohama at which an American aircraft carrier can dock. Meanwhile, Japan is providing ten new multi-role vessels to the Philippine Coast Guard; Manila is also interested in procuring used P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft from Tokyo. Figure 3 highlights the influenced areas. South China Sea has geo-strategic, geo-politic and geo-economic importance due to half of the world trade passage and presence of precious resources of oil and gas. Instead, perceptions of weakness may encourage leaders in Beijing to embrace more assertive behavior. China is already providing indications of how it might act when it controls the South China Sea. The 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea is an international treaty that sets out importantmaritime rules. The most important and least tangible stake in the South China Sea concerns the preservation (or not) of a regional rules-based order supported by U.S. power. China is working hard to bring under its control the water, islands, rocks and reefs that sit within its imaginary nine-dash line. U.S. military advantage is of limited utility in this area and Washington has struggled to convince local partners to join in freedom of navigation operations. Its strategic economic importance and its geographic location at the confluence of several spheres of influence have rendered it one of the "world's hotspots". Cobra Gold, hosted by Thailand and led by the United States, is the largest annual multilateral military exercise in Asia. Seventh Fleet patrolled the regions seaways, including the South China Sea, unchallenged including agreed access to ports throughout much of the region. If this sounds overstated or overwrought it is not. Expanding U.S. access to Vietnamese facilities as described above could eventually render access to Thai facilities somewhat redundant, further weakening the institutional support for the alliance in the United States. In this article, let us look at the strategic importance of the South China Sea, History of the South China Sea Dispute, countries involved, causes, impacts, India's stand on the dispute and the way forward for the UPSC IAS Examination. Allied efforts to support U.S. force posture in the region will remain vital, but the United States should also expect allies to make greater contributions in responding to Chinese coercion. With Burma internationally isolated for much of the past three decades, Beijing invested heavily in that countrys leadership. The United States has formally objected to Chinas South China Sea maritime claims. Importance of South China Sea The South China Sea is a busy international waterway, one of the main arteries of global trade worth more than $5 trillion and is growing year on year. Read more, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NWWashington, DC 20004-3027, 2023 The Wilson Center. It threatens the sovereignty of many nations and endangers the prosperity of the world. China tries to control the waters by using fishing vessels that are part of the Chinese maritime militia, coast guard ships, and naval vessels to harass other countries boats and deny access to this key area. Abstract. 2014 The United States and the Philippines sign an enhanced defense pact, strengthening the U.S.-Filipino relationship. The South China Sea is one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. In addition, tensions have been raised with the Philippines after assertive Chinese naval patrols which they described as aggressive action. Beijing may not find it quite as easy to run roughshod over Hanoi in the coming years. This article aims to highlight security dynamics of the US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific associated with the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea through the prism of Balance of Threat Th. The South China Sea is a strategic body of water bordering Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam and China. That redundancy will grant the United States flexibility in a couple of ways. The South China Sea (SCS) consists of over 200 tiny islands, reefs, shoals, atolls and sandbanks grouped in to 3 archipelagos the Spratlys, the Paracels and the Pratas Macclesfield Bank and Scarborough Shoal. Over the longer term, American defense contractors may have their sights set on sales of fighter aircraft and attack helicopters. 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